QualityDipStocks / Technology · Computer Manufacturing
Apple AAPL
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 6% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $147.19−57%
- Market Value
- $326.36price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.55
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $344.63
- Fair value est.base case$147.19−57.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$246.63−28.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 30$326.36−5.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$344.63you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$348.91+1.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AAPL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AAPL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.55
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.30
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.18
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 99%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 42% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 23% to $7.46 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 14% to $467B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $147.19, 57% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 39.3× is 18% above its own average of 33.2× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationPrice / book of 47.2×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 1.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 11% median for the 162 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.6% above its Market Value of $326.36, the average price paid since the Jul 30 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Apple in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Computer Manufacturing
All fundamentals
P/E 39.3 · FCF yield 2.7% · ROE 149%
Valuation
- P/E
- 39.3×3-yr-end avg 33.2× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 37.1×
- FCF yield
- 2.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 30.3×
- Price / sales
- 10.86×
- Price / book
- 47.16×
- Market cap
- $5.07Tprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.09T
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $467B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.72
- EPS growth, last FY
- +22.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $129B
- Net income growth
- +30%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 48.7%
- Operating margin
- 33.2%
- Net margin
- 27.6%
- FCF margin
- 29.3%
- Return on equity
- 149%
- Return on invested capital
- 99%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $62.4B
- Total debt
- $84.3B
- Net cash
- −$21.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.78×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $137B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +42%
- Dividend yield
- 0.31%$15.6B paid
- Payout ratio
- 12%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $82.2B1.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $13.7B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Apple’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $147.19 · MV $326.36 · FCF value $231.26
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.29 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 31, 2026. Net debt $21.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days −0.9%
The business
FCF $136.7B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$136.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin29%
- Gross margin49%
- Operating margin33%
- Return on invested capital64%
- Return on equity146%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Next report
Nov 2
- DateMon Nov 2, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.98
- Year-ago EPS$1.85
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when AAPL fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on AAPL or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.