QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Advertising
Ibotta IBTA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 22% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $107.64+115%
- Market Value
- $41.05price +22%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.21
52-week range at its 52-week high
Price $50.07Fair value est. $107.64Market Value $41.05
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Nov 2), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +8.2 pts, free cash flow +9.4%, operating margin +0.8 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +8.2 pts, free cash flow +9.4%, operating margin +0.8 pts), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($50.07, Nov 2) the price assumed about 3%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 1%. The last 3 years delivered 18%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 18%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $50.07Nov 2 | $50.07 |
| Implied growth | +3% | +1% |
| P/FCF | 15.7× | 14.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, IBTA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much IBTA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.21
- Volatility
- 82% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
How it ranks
Where IBTA stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate115% · price below our base caseTop 7%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield7% · free cash flow vs market capTop 25%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield12% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 4%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+1.6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 19%of 2,184
- Operating margin−2.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 12%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $107.64 · MV $41.05 · FCF value $52.16
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.6% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.49 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 3, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $107.64, 115% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsShare count down 20.5% in a year: $139M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.0% (price / FCF 14.4×): $81M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 18% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
VoicesGoldman Sachs: “Ibotta (NYSE:IBTA) Upgraded to "Neutral" at The Goldman Sachs Group” MarketBeat
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −0.2% in FY2025 from 17.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLost $16M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 135 points in two fiscal years, to 1% in FY2025.
ValuationTrades 22.0% above its Market Value of $41.05, the average price paid since the Aug 3 filing.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 7.0% · ROE -6% · Sales +2%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 14.4×
- FCF yield
- 7.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.27×
- Price / book
- 4.91×
- Market cap
- $1.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $358M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.67
- EPS growth, last FY
- −95.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$16M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 78.4%
- Operating margin
- −2.7%
- Net margin
- −4.5%
- FCF margin
- 22.8%
- Return on equity
- −6%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $150M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $81M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +7%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $139M11.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −20.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $51M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Ibotta’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin15%
- Gross margin78%
- Operating margin−2%
- Return on invested capital−5%
- Return on equity−4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $50.07
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$19.25−61.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 3$41.05−18.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$50.07at the price
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$50.07you are here
- Fair value est.base case$107.64+115.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 71 · 5 days +2.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
IBTA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ibotta in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
Goldman SachsAnalyst rating changeAnalyst
Ibotta (NYSE:IBTA) Upgraded to "Neutral" at The Goldman Sachs GroupMarketBeat ·
Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET. Matched by name against a maintained list plus the company’s own executives. Information only, not advice.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Advertising
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.