QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Natural Gas Distribution
NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP Common Units representing Limited Partner Interests NGL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 14% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 4% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $15.76price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.45
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 14% below its 52-week high (Aug 31), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 14% below its 52-week high.
The price is 14% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.5B → $3.5B (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$102M → $102M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin4.0% → 4.0% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−2.0% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Utilities)stock −14%, sector median +2% since Aug 31about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −14%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 23.2× at the high → 19.6× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 31, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($18.97, Aug 31) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($6.46, Oct 31) about −14%; today about 7%. The last 3 years delivered −21%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −21%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $18.97Aug 31 | $6.46Oct 31 | $16.35 |
| Implied growth | +10% | −14% | +7% |
| P/E | n/a | 8.4× | n/a |
| P/FCF | 23.2× | 5.9× | 19.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for NGL: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 75% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 33% in FY2023), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NGL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.45
- Volatility
- 53% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.10
How it ranks
Where NGL stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield5.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 39%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 41%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+5.8% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 32%of 1,814
- Operating margin4% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 22%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $15.76
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 30.9% in FY2026 from 23.3% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.1% (price / FCF 19.6×): $102M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 24% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.6× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $88M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 18% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 4.0%, below the 23% median for the 83 Utilities companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 5.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 5.1% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 19.6×
- FCF yield
- 5.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.57×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $2.0Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −17.8%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$88M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 29.5%
- Operating margin
- 4.0%
- Net margin
- −2.5%
- FCF margin
- 2.9%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 0.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $102M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +24%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $40M2.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $13M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP Common Units representing Limited Partner Interests’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +59%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity−38%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+59%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $16.35
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.46−60.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Mar 12$15.76−3.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$16.35you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.97+16.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days +2.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.22
- Year-ago EPS$0.02
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NGL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP Common Units representing Limited Partner Interests in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Natural Gas Distribution
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.