QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electronic Components
KLA KLAC
In a deep dip: 48% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $68.19−57%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −48%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.78
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $157.91
- Fair value est.base case$68.19−56.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$109.71−30.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$157.91you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$301.71+91.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.0%; bull = 8.5% and 11.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KLAC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 25% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KLAC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.78
- Volatility
- 61% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.58
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.71
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 91% over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 39.4× is 23% below its own average of 50.8× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthSales grew 16% to $14.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 48% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $68.19, 57% below the price.
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 51×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
ValuationPrice / book of 31.7×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.9×, above the 0.4× median for the 88 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.78 vs the S&P 500 and 61% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on KLA in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electronic Components
All fundamentals
P/E 39.4 · FCF yield 2.0% · ROE 91%
Valuation
- P/E
- 39.4×3-yr-end avg 50.8× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 51.3×
- FCF yield
- 2.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 14.27×
- Price / book
- 31.74×
- Market cap
- $207Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $211B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $14.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.99
- EPS growth, last FY
- +20.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $5.3B
- Net income growth
- +24%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 61.5%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 36.2%
- FCF margin
- 27.8%
- Return on equity
- 91%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.5B
- Total debt
- $5.7B
- Net cash
- −$4.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.88×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +4%
- Dividend yield
- 0.54%$1.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 21%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.7B1.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $324M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From KLA’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $68.19 · MV $161.75 · FCF value $76.99
Assumes 9.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.0% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.08 a share, trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 (company filings via Yahoo Finance, checked against SEC).
How we got these
- Market Value: volume-weighted average close from Oct 29 (first full trading day after the filing) to Oct 30, 2 trading days. Simple average $162.67. Event: SEC 8-K Item 2.02 (earnings), filed Oct 28, 4:07 PM ET. Read the filing.
- Free cash flow, 12 months to Sep 30: $4.5B operating cash flow − $475M capex = $4.0B, or $3.08 a share on 1.31B diluted shares.
- DCF: free cash flow per share grows 9% a year for five years, from its FY2023–FY2026 revenue growth of 9% a year, fading to 3% by year ten; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth.
- FCF value: free cash flow per share ÷ 4%, the price at which the stock yields 4% in free cash flow.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days +8.4%
The business
FCF $4.0B · Sales +29%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin62%
- Operating margin43%
- Return on invested capital40%
- Return on equity90%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+29%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when KLAC fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on KLAC or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.