QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electronic Components
Seagate Technology STX
In a deep dip: 41% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $552.80−14%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −41%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.58
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $644.58
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$237.49−63.2%
- Fair value est.base case$552.80−14.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$644.58you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,094+69.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, STX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much STX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.58
- Volatility
- 74% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.44
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.57
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 105% to $13.90 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 45.6% in FY2026 from 23.4% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 33.6% in FY2026 from 6.9% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 104%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 41% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $552.80, 14% below the price.
ValuationPrice / book of 43.3×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 2.7% over 12 months, above the −0.4% median for the 147 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.4%, below the 0.9% median for the 69 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.58 vs the S&P 500 and 74% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Seagate Technology in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electronic Components
All fundamentals
P/E 34.0 · FCF yield 2.8% · Sales +44%
Valuation
- P/E
- 34.0×3-yr-end avg 48.4× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 36.0×
- FCF yield
- 2.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 26.2×
- Price / sales
- 10.84×
- Price / book
- 43.31×
- Market cap
- $150Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $151B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +44.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +18.2%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $19.06
- EPS growth, last FY
- +105.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.4B
- Net income growth
- +157%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 50.4%
- Operating margin
- 39.6%
- Net margin
- 31.9%
- FCF margin
- 30.1%
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- 104%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.3B
- Total debt
- $2.4B
- Net cash
- −$1.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.68×
- Interest coverage
- 22.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +241%
- Dividend yield
- 0.43%$649M paid
- Payout ratio
- 15%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $547M0.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $224M
Trailing 12 months to Oct 2, 2026; balance sheet at Oct 2, 2026. From Seagate Technology’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $552.80 · FCF value $418.45
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 18.2% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $17.92 a share (trailing 12 months to Oct 2, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $1.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 37 · 5 days +2.2%
The business
FCF $4.2B · Sales +61%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin30%
- Gross margin50%
- Operating margin40%
- Return on invested capital76%
- Return on equity309%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+61%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when STX fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on STX or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.