QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
Lamb Weston LW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 10% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $60.24+6%
- Market Value
- $51.69price +10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.18
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 10% below its 52-week high (Nov 3), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +2.6 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.4% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +2.6 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.4% of market cap since the high), others slipped (free cash flow −17.7%, earnings per share −12.3%, operating margin −1.6 pts). The price is 10% below its 52-week high.
The price is 10% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −17.7%, earnings per share −12.3%, operating margin −1.6 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($62.76, Nov 3) the price assumed about 5%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($38.48, Apr 1) about −8%; today about 6%. The last 3 years delivered 71%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 71%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $62.76Nov 3 | $38.48Apr 1 | $56.58 |
| Implied growth | +5% | −8% | +6% |
| P/E | 29.8× | 17.8× | 30.7× |
| P/FCF | 17.5× | 8.5× | 19.0× |
| EV/Sales | 2.0× | 1.4× | 1.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.3%; bull = 8.5% and 9.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LW’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.18
- Volatility
- 43% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.07
How it ranks
Where LW stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate6% · price below our base caseTop 41%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield5.3% · free cash flow vs market capTop 37%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 49%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+2.6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 20%of 1,814
- Operating margin7.8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 36%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital6.7% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 34%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $60.24 · MV $51.69 · FCF value $59.84
Assumes 7.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.3% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.98 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 6, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.3% (price / FCF 19.0×): $412M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.7% ($208M paid over 12 months, 82% of earnings).
GrowthSales grew 7.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 2.2% median for the 59 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 1.2% over 12 months, below the −0.6% median for the 42 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 25 points in two fiscal years, to 16% in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 8.9% in FY2026 from 16.5% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 20.6% in FY2026 from 27.3% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 9.5% above its Market Value of $51.69, the average price paid since the Oct 6 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 30.7 · FCF yield 5.3% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 30.7×Consumer Staples median 22.1×
- Price / FCF
- 19.0×
- FCF yield
- 5.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.6×
- Price / sales
- 1.18×
- Price / book
- 4.32×
- Market cap
- $7.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $11.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.83
- EPS growth, last FY
- −16.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $255M
- Net income growth
- −13%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 19.4%
- Operating margin
- 7.8%
- Net margin
- 3.8%
- FCF margin
- 6.2%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- 7%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $166M
- Total debt
- $3.9B
- Net cash
- −$3.8B
- Debt / equity
- 2.17×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $412M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −18%
- Dividend yield
- 2.66%$208M paid
- Payout ratio
- 82%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $51M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 30, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 30, 2026. From Lamb Weston’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $56.58
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$38.48−32.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 6$51.69−8.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$56.58you are here
- Fair value est.base case$60.24+6.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$62.76+10.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 69 · 5 days +5.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
LW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Lamb Weston in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.