QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
MongoDB MDB
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $247.96−30%
- Market Value
- $363.04price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.95
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $352.96
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$225.95−36.0%
- Fair value est.base case$247.96−29.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$352.96you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 1$363.04+2.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$472.29+33.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MDB’s free cash flow would need to grow about 22% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MDB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.95
- Volatility
- 72% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.34
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.35
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 175% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −5.6% in FY2026 from −13.9% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 24% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 25% to $2.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $247.96, 30% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -6.1× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −1% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 71.7% in FY2026 from 74.8% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on MongoDB in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
FCF yield 2.3% · ROE 2% · Sales +25%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/an/m: earnings near zero (P/E above 300)
- Price / FCF
- 43.9×
- FCF yield
- 2.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 10.40×
- Price / book
- 9.71×
- Market cap
- $28.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +25.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +24.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.71
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $59M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 72.7%
- Operating margin
- −0.5%
- Net margin
- 2.1%
- FCF margin
- 23.7%
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.4B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -6.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $659M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +175%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $406M1.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $564M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From MongoDB’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $247.96 · MV $363.04 · FCF value $187.87
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 24.3% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.04 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 1, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days −4.9%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin24%
- Gross margin73%
- Operating margin0%
- Return on invested capital0%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA−8.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MDB is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.