QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Diversified Commercial Services
PayPal PYPL
Not in a dip by our rules: 18% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $141.10+147%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −18%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.97
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $57.01
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$39.08−31.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$57.01you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$69.27+21.5%
- Fair value est.base case$141.10+147.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.4%; bull = 8.5% and 8.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PYPL’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PYPL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.97
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.30
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 12.9% (price / FCF 7.8×): $6.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 10.3× is 36% below its own average of 16.1× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $141.10, 147% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 10.3× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 10.6% in a year: $6.1B of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 4.4% over the last 12 months, below the 9.3% median for the 147 Industrials companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.7×, above the 0.5× median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on PayPal in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
All fundamentals
P/E 10.3 · FCF yield 12.9% · ROE 24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.3×3-yr-end avg 16.1× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 7.8×
- FCF yield
- 12.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.6×
- Price / sales
- 1.43×
- Price / book
- 2.51×
- Market cap
- $48.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $52.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $34.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.24
- EPS growth, last FY
- +35.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.7B
- Net income growth
- −4%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 17.0%
- Net margin
- 13.8%
- FCF margin
- 18.4%
- Return on equity
- 24%
- Return on invested capital
- 20%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $10.3B
- Total debt
- $13.4B
- Net cash
- −$3.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.69×
- Interest coverage
- 12.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $6.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +13%
- Dividend yield
- 1.02%$500M paid
- Payout ratio
- 11%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $6.1B12.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −10.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $977M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From PayPal’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $141.10 · FCF value $189.83
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.34 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026. Net debt $3.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days 0.0%
The business
FCF $6.3B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$6.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield13.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin46%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when PYPL fires a reversal signal
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