QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Auto Manufacturing
Tesla TSLA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 18% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is near zero.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $392.40price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −18%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.21
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $399.81
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$298.32−25.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$392.40−1.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$399.81you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$489.88+22.5%
Fair value estimate
No estimate for TSLA: free cash flow is barely positive ($0.93 a share); a DCF says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TSLA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.21
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.63
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.66
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
Balance sheetNet cash of $37.5B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
GrowthSales grew 8% to $104B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.1×, below the 0.5× median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 145% to $6.6B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 47% to $1.08 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 19 points in two fiscal years, to 5% in FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 52% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Tesla in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
Elon MuskCEO, Tesla and SpaceXCompany
Tesla at a historic crossroads as Musk bets on AI, space to revive growthdigitimes ·
Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET. Matched by name against a maintained list plus the company’s own executives. Information only, not advice.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto Manufacturing
All fundamentals
FCF yield 0.2% · ROE 4% · Sales +8%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/an/m: earnings near zero (P/E above 300)
- Price / FCF
- n/an/m: free cash flow near zero
- FCF yield
- 0.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 150.9×
- Price / sales
- 13.67×
- Price / book
- 15.86×
- Market cap
- $1.42Tprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.38T
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $104B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.91
- EPS growth, last FY
- −47.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.2B
- Net income growth
- −37%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 19.3%
- Operating margin
- 3.3%
- Net margin
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- 3.2%
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $45.4B
- Total debt
- $8.0B
- Net cash
- $37.5B
- Debt / equity
- 0.09×
- Interest coverage
- 10.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −52%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $4.3B
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Tesla’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $392.40 · FCF value $20.69
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +7.4%
The business
FCF $3.3B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin19%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TSLA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.