QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Air freight & delivery
Frontier Group ULCC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is near zero.
Worth knowing
- Net cash = 29% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.45
52-week range 87% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $7.43
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 8% below its 52-week high (Jun 25), but the business held up: revenue +21.5%, revenue growth rate +24.4 pts, free cash flow −$468M → $2M, turned positive.
Some numbers held up (revenue +21.5%, revenue growth rate +24.4 pts, free cash flow −$468M → $2M, turned positive), others slipped. The price is 8% below its 52-week high.
The price is 8% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for ULCC: free cash flow is barely positive ($0.01 a share); a DCF says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ULCC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.45
- Volatility
- 79% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.34
How it ranks
Where ULCC stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Free cash flow yield0.1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 21%of 1,690
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+24% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 21%of 2,184
- Operating margin−9.5% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 8%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
Balance sheetNet cash of $490M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
GrowthSales grew 24% to $4.6B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -9.5× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetDebt is 13.1× shareholders’ equity.
ProfitabilityLost $413M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 26 points in two fiscal years, to -28% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; debt load unclear or high.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 0.1% · ROE -175% · Sales +24%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/an/m: free cash flow near zero
- FCF yield
- 0.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 0.37×
- Price / book
- 46.24×
- Market cap
- $1.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +24.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.79
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$413M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −9.5%
- Net margin
- −8.9%
- FCF margin
- 0.0%
- Return on equity
- −175%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $976M
- Total debt
- $486M
- Net cash
- $490M
- Debt / equity
- 13.14×
- Interest coverage
- -9.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $20M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Frontier Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +53%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Gross margin6%
- Operating margin0%
- Return on invested capital0%
- Return on equity−175%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+53%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $7.43
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$3.10−58.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$7.43you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$8.06+8.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 72 · 5 days +51.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
ULCC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Frontier Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Air freight & delivery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.