QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Air freight & delivery
Allegiant Travel Company ALGT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 36% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Down 38% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 12%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $86.74+13%
- Market Value
- $73.04price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −36%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.31
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.2%; bull = 8.5% and 6.2% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALGT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALGT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.31
- Volatility
- 64% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.46
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.36
How it ranks
Where ALGT stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate13% · price below our base caseTop 37%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield6.7% · free cash flow vs market capTop 26%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.2% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 21%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+12% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 41%of 1,814
- Operating margin4.9% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 26%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital2.6% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 15%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $86.74 · MV $73.04 · FCF value $173.22
Assumes 4.2% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.2% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.11 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $1.7B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $86.74, 13% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.7% (price / FCF 15.0×): $117M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $1.8B at FY2025, 20% less than at FY2023.
GrowthSales grew 12% to $2.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 9.0×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.0× over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 67.3× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.7B, 99% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsShare count up 27.0% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 67.3 · FCF yield 6.7% · ROE 2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 67.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 15.0×
- FCF yield
- 6.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.0×
- Price / sales
- 0.60×
- Price / book
- 0.98×
- Market cap
- $1.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.16
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $26M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 4.9%
- Net margin
- 0.9%
- FCF margin
- 4.0%
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- 3%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.1B
- Total debt
- $2.8B
- Net cash
- −$1.7B
- Debt / equity
- 1.56×
- Interest coverage
- 1.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $117M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +15%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +27.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Allegiant Travel Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +37%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin23%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+37%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $76.58
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$58.03−24.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 23$73.04−4.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$76.58you are here
- Fair value est.base case$86.74+13.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$119.16+55.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +11.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.47)
- Year-ago EPS($2.09)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ALGT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Allegiant Travel Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Air freight & delivery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.