QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Air freight & delivery
Alaska Air Group ALK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 36% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 9% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 17%, top 2% of the 1145 we measure
- Share count down 7% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $35.17price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −36%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.23
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 36% below its 52-week high (Feb 9), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue +4.4%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue +4.4%), others slipped (revenue growth rate −21.7 pts, earnings per share turned to a loss, free cash flow −28.9%). The price is 36% below its 52-week high.
The price is 36% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −21.7 pts, earnings per share turned to a loss, free cash flow −28.9%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$14.1B → $14.8B (+4.4%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+31.5% → +9.8% a year (−21.7 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a losschanged
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.0B → $731M (−28.9%)changed
- Operating margin2.1% → −1.5% (−3.6 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding−5.4% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−15.3% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −36%, sector median +2% since Feb 9changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −36%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −12% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 6.9× at the high → 5.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($60.21, Feb 9) the price assumed about −12%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($33.54, Oct 21) about −17%; today about −14%. The last 3 years delivered 14%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 14%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $60.21Feb 9 | $33.54Oct 21 | $38.29 |
| Implied growth | −12% | −17% | −14% |
| P/E | 47.2× | n/a | n/a |
| P/FCF | 6.9× | 5.1× | 5.8× |
| EV/Sales | 0.7× | 0.5× | 0.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for ALK: the model gives 398% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALK’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.23
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.55
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.42
How it ranks
Where ALK stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield17% · free cash flow vs market capTop 2%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield6.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 16%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+9.8% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 49%of 1,814
- Operating margin−1.5% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 11%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−2.5% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 6%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $35.17
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 17.2% (price / FCF 5.8×): $731M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 8.1% in a year: $285M of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $14.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 14% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 5.4% median for the 380 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -0.7× over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 73% to $0.83 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityLost $175M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt rose 115% to $5.3B from FY2023 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 8.8× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 17.2% · ROE -5% · Sales +10%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 5.8×
- FCF yield
- 17.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.0×
- Price / sales
- 0.29×
- Price / book
- 1.16×
- Market cap
- $4.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $14.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.61
- EPS growth, last FY
- −73.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$175M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −1.5%
- Net margin
- −1.2%
- FCF margin
- 5.0%
- Return on equity
- −5%
- Return on invested capital
- −3%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.7B
- Total debt
- $6.0B
- Net cash
- −$3.4B
- Debt / equity
- 1.65×
- Interest coverage
- -0.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $731M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −36%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $285M6.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $42M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Alaska Air Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.5B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield17.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin−3%
- Gross margin17%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity−10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA8.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $38.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$33.54−12.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$35.17−8.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$38.29you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$60.21+57.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days +9.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
ALK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alaska Air Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Air freight & delivery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.