QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Air freight & delivery
Copa CPA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 13% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.80
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 13% below its 52-week high (Jun 26), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 13% below its 52-week high.
The price is 13% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.6B → $3.6B (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$16.28 → $16.47 (+1.2%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$335M → $335M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin22.6% → 22.6% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−1.2% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −13%, sector median +2% since Jun 26about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −13%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 19.4× at the high → 16.7× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Jun 26, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($157.19, Jun 26) the price assumed about 7%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($107.81, Mar 30) about 0%; today about 4%. The last 3 years delivered −13%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −13%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $157.19Jun 26 | $107.81Mar 30 | $137.34 |
| Implied growth | +7% | 0% | +4% |
| P/E | 9.7× | 6.6× | 8.3× |
| P/FCF | 19.4× | 13.3× | 16.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for CPA: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 71% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 34% in FY2022), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CPA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.80
- Volatility
- 44% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.53
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.45
How it ranks
Where CPA stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield6% · free cash flow vs market capTop 31%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 29%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+5% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 29%of 1,814
- Operating margin23% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 23%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 8.3× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.7% ($266M paid over 12 months, 40% of earnings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.0% (price / FCF 16.7×): $335M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 26% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 45× over.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales grew 5.0% over the last 12 months, below the 6.7% median for the 376 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.80 vs the S&P 500 and 44% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 8.3 · FCF yield 6.0% · ROE 26%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 16.7×
- FCF yield
- 6.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.55×
- Price / book
- 2.02×
- Market cap
- $5.6Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $16.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- +11.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $672M
- Net income growth
- +10%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 22.6%
- Net margin
- 18.6%
- FCF margin
- 9.3%
- Return on equity
- 26%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $383M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 45.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $335M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −10%
- Dividend yield
- 4.75%$266M paid
- Payout ratio
- 40%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Copa’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +26%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin−1%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity23%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+26%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $137.34
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$107.81−21.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$137.34you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$157.19+14.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days +5.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18, after the close
- Consensus EPS$4
- Year-ago EPS$4.20
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
CPA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Copa in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Air freight & delivery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.