QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
Mastercard MA
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $531.20−17%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.24
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $638.01
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$471.55−26.1%
- Fair value est.base case$531.20−16.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$638.01you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$638.01at the price
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.8%; bull = 8.5% and 15.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.24
- Volatility
- 23% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.14
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.05
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 84%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 59% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.2% in a year: $15.5B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 15% to $36.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $531.20, 17% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.5× shareholders’ equity.
ValuationP/E of 33.0× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 25.5×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Mastercard in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
All fundamentals
P/E 33.0 · FCF yield 2.9% · Sales +15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 33.0×3-yr-end avg 36.2× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 34.8×
- FCF yield
- 2.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 25.5×
- Price / sales
- 15.40×
- Price / book
- 82.76×
- Market cap
- $559Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $573B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $36.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $19.11
- EPS growth, last FY
- +18.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $17.0B
- Net income growth
- +19%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 58.6%
- Net margin
- 46.7%
- FCF margin
- 44.3%
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- 84%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $10.1B
- Total debt
- $23.9B
- Net cash
- −$13.8B
- Debt / equity
- 3.54×
- Interest coverage
- 26.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $16.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −5%
- Dividend yield
- 0.54%$3.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $15.5B2.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $637M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Mastercard’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $531.20 · FCF value $441.93
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 13.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $18.36 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $13.8B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 71 · 5 days +2.3%
The business
FCF $15.4B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$15.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin42%
- Gross margin78%
- Operating margin60%
- Return on invested capital56%
- Return on equity244%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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