QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
Visa V
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $268.35−35%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.26
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $413.59
- Fair value est.base case$268.35−35.1%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$295.52−28.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$413.59you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$414.34+0.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.9%; bull = 8.5% and 12.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, V’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much V moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.26
- Volatility
- 22% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.03
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 61% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 14% to $44.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 35× over.
GrowthSales grew 11% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $268.35, 35% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 60.0% in FY2025 from 64.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 37.1× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.5%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Visa in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
All fundamentals
P/E 37.1 · FCF yield 2.5% · Sales +14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 37.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 39.9×
- FCF yield
- 2.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 18.86×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $839Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $44.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $22.6B
- Net income growth
- +11%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 60.7%
- Net margin
- 50.8%
- FCF margin
- 47.2%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 34.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $21.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −5%
- Dividend yield
- 0.60%$5.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 22%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $21.4B2.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $919M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From Visa’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $268.35 · MV $408.34 · FCF value $271.87
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 10.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.87 a share, trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 (company filings via Yahoo Finance, checked against SEC).
How we got these
- Market Value: volume-weighted average close from Oct 28 (first full trading day after the filing) to Oct 30, 3 trading days. Simple average $408.24. Event: SEC 8-K Item 2.02 (earnings), filed Oct 27, 4:05 PM ET. Read the filing.
- Free cash flow, 12 months to Sep 30: $23.7B operating cash flow − $1.7B capex = $22.1B, or $10.87 a share on 2.03B diluted shares.
- DCF: free cash flow per share grows 11% a year for five years, from its FY2022–FY2025 revenue growth of 11% a year, fading to 3% by year ten; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth.
- FCF value: free cash flow per share ÷ 4%, the price at which the stock yields 4% in free cash flow.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 69 · 5 days +1.4%
The business
FCF $22.1B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$22.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin48%
- Gross margin80%
- Operating margin65%
- Return on invested capital40%
- Return on equity63%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when V fires a reversal signal
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