QualityDipDI
Dan IvesOct 7 · Research note
bullishNamed Nvidia among his top 5 tech picks into 2027 at his new firm Yorkville Ives: "We believe this is the 3rd inning of a 9-inning game."
Stocks / Technology · Semiconductors
NVDA
Nvidia NVDA
$204.64−4.22% dayFri Oct 30 close
On dip watch: 14% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate, 8% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $161.35−21%
- Market Value
- $222.75price −8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.92
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Fair value est.Market ValueDrag across the chart to see any day
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $204.64
- Fair value est.base case$161.35−21.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$165.17−19.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$204.64you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 26$222.75+8.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$239.24+16.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
$161.35−21% vs price
Price $204.64
Bear$123.83
Base$161.35
Bull$216.16
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NVDA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NVDA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
High
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.92
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.66
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.69
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 83% to $303B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 25.8× is 44% below its own average of 46.0× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 67% to $4.90 in FY2026.
GrowthSales compounded 100% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 69%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $161.35, 21% below the price.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.1%, below the 0.9% median for the 69 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 21.7×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.92 vs the S&P 500 and 37% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
VoicesDan Loeb (Aug 14): “13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 190,000 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.” SEC 13F (Third Point)
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Nvidia in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
Jensen HuangCEO, NvidiaCompany
Billionaires are fighting a tax hike in California that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says he is good with as hThe Times of India ·
Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET. Matched by name against a maintained list plus the company’s own executives. Information only, not advice.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor$406.13−5.9%+34%−55%40.4×$2.24TAVGOBroadcom$326.08−5.5%−13%−24%41.6×$1.65TSKHYSK hynix$149.21−7.9%—n/an/a$1.18TMUMicron Technology$884.74−5.3%+295%+80%11.9×$1.06TAMDAdvanced Micro Devices$504.80−10.9%+98%−71%130.2×$925BINTCIntel$65.76−28.6%+64%−83%n/a$487BAll fundamentals
P/E 25.8 · FCF yield 2.6% · ROE 117%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.8×3-yr-end avg 46.0× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 39.1×
- FCF yield
- 2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 24.7×
- Price / sales
- 16.40×
- Price / book
- 21.70×
- Market cap
- $4.97Tprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.98T
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $303B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +83.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +100.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.91
- EPS growth, last FY
- +66.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $193B
- Net income growth
- +123%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 74.7%
- Operating margin
- 65.2%
- Net margin
- 63.7%
- FCF margin
- 41.9%
- Return on equity
- 117%
- Return on invested capital
- 69%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $22.4B
- Total debt
- $33.4B
- Net cash
- −$10.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.15×
- Interest coverage
- 425.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $127B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +76%
- Dividend yield
- 0.14%$6.8B paid
- Payout ratio
- 4%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $55.3B1.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $7.2B
Trailing 12 months to Jul 26, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 26, 2026. From Nvidia’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $161.35 · MV $222.75 · FCF value $126.19
Market ValueAverage paid since the Aug 26 filing, 46 trading days
$222.75price −8%
Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted
$161.3521% downside
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 100.0% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.23 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 26, 2026. Net debt $10.9B, not deducted.
FCF valuePrice at a 4% yield on trailing free cash flow ($127.0B)
$126.19price +62%
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 35 · 5 days −3.0%
$204.64nowMV
52-wk low $165.17high $239.24
Off 52-wk high−14.5%
5 days−3.0%
vs 50-day avg−7.7%
vs 200-day avg+0.1%
RSI (14)35
Market cap$5.15T
The business
FCF $127.0B · Sales +106%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$127.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin42%
- Gross margin75%
- Operating margin65%
- Return on invested capital60%
- Return on equity120%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+106%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.1×
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17, after the close
- Consensus EPS$2.49
- Year-ago EPS$1.24
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Investor buzz
3 from investors
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
CW
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)Sep 29 · Fund trade
bullishARK bought 356,681 shares (Sep 29) across ARKK,ARKQ,ARKW,ARKX, per ARK's daily trade disclosures.
DL
Dan LoebAug 14 · 13F filing
bearish13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 190,000 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when NVDA fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on NVDA or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.