QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Metal Mining
BHP Group BHP
On dip watch: 20% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $57.95−27%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.58
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $79.16
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$52.58−33.6%
- Fair value est.base case$57.95−26.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$79.16you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$98.69+24.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BHP’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BHP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.58
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.59
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.56
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 40.6% in FY2026 from 31.5% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.5% ($9.1B paid over 12 months, 93% of earnings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.9% (price / FCF 16.9×): $11.9B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 15% to $58.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $57.95, 27% below the price.
Cash returnsDividends take 93% of earnings ($9.1B paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 14% in the last fiscal year, below the 121% median for the 16 Basic Materials companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 3.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 10% median for the 23 Basic Materials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on BHP Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Mining
All fundamentals
P/E 20.5 · FCF yield 5.9% · ROE 20%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.5×Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- 16.9×
- FCF yield
- 5.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.42×
- Price / book
- 3.95×
- Market cap
- $201Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $58.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- +14.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $9.8B
- Net income growth
- +9%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 40.6%
- Net margin
- 16.7%
- FCF margin
- 20.3%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $18.5B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 11.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $11.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +28%
- Dividend yield
- 4.53%$9.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 93%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From BHP Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $57.95 · FCF value $113.51
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -7.7% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.66 a share (fiscal year to Jun 30, 2025, 2 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Aug 22, 2025. Net debt $9.6B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days +1.7%
The business
FCF $11.9B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$11.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin76%
- Operating margin43%
- Return on invested capital28%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (last fiscal year vs prior)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17
- Year-ago EPSN/A
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when BHP fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on BHP or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.