QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Metal Mining
Rio Tinto Plc RIO
Deep dip with a setup armed: a close above $85.74 triggers it. 27% below its 52-week high.
A quality company. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −27%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.28
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $81.89
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$67.89−17.1%
- Stopreference, not an order$81.21−0.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$81.89you are here
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$85.74+4.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$112.04+36.8%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for RIO: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 73% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 42% in FY2022), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RIO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.28
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.53
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.50
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 10.5× vs a 20.5× median for the 19 Basic Materials companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.1% ($6.4B paid over 12 months, 64% of earnings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 26% over the last 12 months.
SetupA capitulation-reversal setup is armed: a close above $85.74 triggers it, with a reference stop at $81.21.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 27% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 25% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 14% to $6.08 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 7.4% over the last 12 months, below the 26% median for the 23 Basic Materials companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 1.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 10% median for the 23 Basic Materials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Rio Tinto Plc in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Mining
All fundamentals
P/E 10.5 · FCF yield 4.3% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.5×3-yr-end avg 11.2× · Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- 23.3×
- FCF yield
- 4.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.81×
- Price / book
- 1.68×
- Market cap
- $105Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $57.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.08
- EPS growth, last FY
- −14.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $10.0B
- Net income growth
- −14%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 25.9%
- Net margin
- 17.3%
- FCF margin
- 7.8%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $8.9B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 14.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −25%
- Dividend yield
- 6.13%$6.4B paid
- Payout ratio
- 64%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Rio Tinto Plc’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $85.74
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 25 · 5 days −1.8%
The business
FCF $5.5B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Operating margin28%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (last fiscal year vs prior)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when RIO fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on RIO or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.