QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Metal Mining
Freeport-McMoRan FCX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $20.81−67%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.22
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $62.47
- Fair value est.base case$20.81−66.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$38.65−38.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$62.47you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$79.91+27.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.4%; bull = 8.5% and 6.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FCX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 25% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FCX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.22
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.59
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.60
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 27% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 19%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 15% over the last 12 months.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 10.5×, below the 14.9× median for the 8 Basic Materials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $20.81, 67% below the price.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 28.2% in FY2025 from 31.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 25.2% in FY2025 from 27.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Freeport-McMoRan in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Mining
All fundamentals
P/E 30.6 · ROE 15% · Sales +0%
Valuation
- P/E
- 30.6×Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.5×
- Price / sales
- 3.48×
- Price / book
- 4.48×
- Market cap
- $90.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $95.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $25.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.9B
- Net income growth
- +53%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 27.1%
- Operating margin
- 26.8%
- Net margin
- 11.4%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- 19%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.1B
- Total debt
- $9.4B
- Net cash
- −$5.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.47×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0.96%$866M paid
- Payout ratio
- 29%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $203M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- 0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $150M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Freeport-McMoRan’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $20.81 · FCF value $32.55
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 4.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.21 a share (trailing 12 months to Mar 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed May 8, 2026. Net debt $5.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 30 · 5 days −4.2%
The business
FCF $2.0B · Sales −7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin28%
- Operating margin25%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−7%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
FCX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.