QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Metal Mining
Southern Copper SCCO
On dip watch: 19% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate, 6% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $157.76−11%
- Market Value
- $187.87price −6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −19%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.39
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $177.53
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$116.49−34.4%
- Fair value est.base case$157.76−11.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$177.53you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$187.87+5.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$219.70+23.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.1%; bull = 8.5% and 12.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SCCO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SCCO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.39
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.59
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.59
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 39% to $17.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 52.2% in FY2025 from 42.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 53% over the last 12 months, up 7 points in two years.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 48%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationTrades 5.5% below its Market Value of $187.87, the average price paid since the Oct 21 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $157.76, 11% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.6×, above the 0.5× median for the 12 Basic Materials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 11.0×, above the 3.8× median for the 19 Basic Materials companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 23.4×, above the 20.5× median for the 19 Basic Materials companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.39 vs the S&P 500 and 52% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Southern Copper in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Mining
All fundamentals
P/E 23.4 · FCF yield 3.8% · ROE 53%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.4×3-yr-end avg 24.5× · Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- 26.6×
- FCF yield
- 3.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.6×
- Price / sales
- 8.70×
- Price / book
- 11.01×
- Market cap
- $149Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $149B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $17.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +38.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.67
- EPS growth, last FY
- +24.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $6.4B
- Net income growth
- +66%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 65.2%
- Operating margin
- 58.6%
- Net margin
- 37.2%
- FCF margin
- 32.7%
- Return on equity
- 53%
- Return on invested capital
- 48%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $8.1B
- Total debt
- $8.0B
- Net cash
- $67M
- Debt / equity
- 0.59×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $5.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +61%
- Dividend yield
- 2.21%$3.3B paid
- Payout ratio
- 52%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- 0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Southern Copper’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $157.76 · MV $187.87 · FCF value $153.52
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 10.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.68 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net cash $67M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 33 · 5 days −4.0%
The business
FCF $5.6B · Sales +41%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin33%
- Gross margin60%
- Operating margin59%
- Return on invested capital38%
- Return on equity57%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+41%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when SCCO fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on SCCO or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.