QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
BellRing Brands BRBR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 72% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 20%, top 2% of the 1322 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $9.56price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −72%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.05
52-week range 8% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $9.45Market Value $9.56
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 72% below its 52-week high (Dec 10), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue +1.6%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue +1.6%), others slipped (revenue growth rate −10.2 pts, earnings per share −12.6%, operating margin −2.2 pts). The price is 72% below its 52-week high.
The price is 72% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −10.2 pts, earnings per share −12.6%, operating margin −2.2 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.3B → $2.4B (+1.6%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+16.1% → +5.9% a year (−10.2 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.68 → $1.47 (−12.6%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$256M → $225M (−12.1%)changed
- Operating margin15.4% → 13.3% (−2.2 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding−9.3% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−6.6% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Staples)stock −72%, sector median +5% since Dec 10changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −72%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −12% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 16.7× at the high → 4.9× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($33.30, Dec 10) the price assumed about 4%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($7.40, Oct 1) about −22%; today about −18%. The last 3 years delivered 137%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 137%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $33.30Dec 10 | $7.40Oct 1 | $9.45 |
| Implied growth | +4% | −22% | −18% |
| P/E | 19.8× | 5.0× | 6.4× |
| P/FCF | 16.7× | 3.8× | 4.9× |
| EV/Sales | 2.3× | 0.8× | 0.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for BRBR: the model gives 530% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BRBR’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BRBR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 5.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.05
- Volatility
- 71% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.10
How it ranks
Where BRBR stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield20% · free cash flow vs market capTop 2%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+5.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 34%of 2,184
- Operating margin13% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 42%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital37% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 8%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $9.56 · FCF value $42.95
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 20.4% (price / FCF 4.9×): $225M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 6.4× vs a 21.1× median for the 62 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 8.9% in a year.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 78% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 37%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.1B, 98% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthSales growth slowed to 6% over the last 12 months, from 19% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Balance sheetDebt rose 27% to $1.1B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 29%, below the 34% median for the 72 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 6.4 · FCF yield 20.4% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 6.4×Consumer Staples median 21.1×
- Price / FCF
- 4.9×
- FCF yield
- 20.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.6×
- Price / sales
- 0.47×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +19.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.42
- EPS growth, last FY
- −9.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $171M
- Net income growth
- −25%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 28.6%
- Operating margin
- 13.3%
- Net margin
- 7.3%
- FCF margin
- 9.6%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 37%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $50M
- Total debt
- $1.1B
- Net cash
- −$1.1B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $225M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +78%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $23M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From BellRing Brands’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield20.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin29%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital32%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $9.45
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.40−21.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$9.45you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$9.56+1.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$33.30+252.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days −1.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.21
- Year-ago EPS$0.51
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
BRBR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on BellRing Brands in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.