QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
Flowers Foods FLO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 44% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 9% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 21%, top 1% of the 1322 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $6.20price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −44%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.04
52-week range 19% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $6.77Market Value $6.20
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 44% below its 52-week high (Nov 5), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +3.1 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +7.3% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +3.1 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +7.3% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less), others slipped (earnings per share −74.9%, free cash flow −20.2%, operating margin −3.7 pts). The price is 44% below its 52-week high.
The price is 44% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −74.9%, free cash flow −20.2%, operating margin −3.7 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$5.1B → $5.2B (+2.5%)held up
- Revenue growth rate−0.6% → +2.5% a year (+3.1 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.04 → $0.26 (−74.9%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$384M → $306M (−20.2%)changed
- Operating margin6.5% → 2.7% (−3.7 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding+0.2% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+7.3% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Staples)stock −44%, sector median +8% since Nov 5changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −44%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −20% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 6.7× at the high → 4.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jul 12, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jul 18, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($12.10, Nov 5) the price assumed about −12%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($5.55, Sep 30) about −22%; today about −18%. The last 3 years delivered 18%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 18%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $12.10Nov 5 | $5.55Sep 30 | $6.77 |
| Implied growth | −12% | −22% | −18% |
| P/E | 11.7× | 21.4× | 26.1× |
| P/FCF | 6.7× | 3.9× | 4.7× |
| EV/Sales | 0.8× | 0.5× | 0.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for FLO: the model gives 238% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FLO’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FLO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.04
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.14
How it ranks
Where FLO stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield21% · free cash flow vs market capTop 2%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 25%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+2.5% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 22%of 2,184
- Operating margin2.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 22%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital3.4% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 20%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $6.20 · FCF value $36.27
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 21.3% (price / FCF 4.7×): $306M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.1×, below the 2.3× median for the 68 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 9.8×, below the 12.1× median for the 43 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 66% to $0.40 in FY2026.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.6B, 114% of the market cap (Jul 18, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt rose 67% to $1.8B from FY2023 to FY2026.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.8× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; no sales-growth data; net debt 4.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 26.1 · FCF yield 21.3% · ROE 4%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.1×Consumer Staples median 21.1×
- Price / FCF
- 4.7×
- FCF yield
- 21.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.8×
- Price / sales
- 0.28×
- Price / book
- 1.09×
- Market cap
- $1.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.26
- EPS growth, last FY
- −65.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $55M
- Net income growth
- −75%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 2.7%
- Net margin
- 1.1%
- FCF margin
- 5.9%
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- 3%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $53M
- Total debt
- $1.7B
- Net cash
- −$1.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.27×
- Interest coverage
- 1.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $306M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −20%
- Dividend yield
- n/adividends paid in the last 12 months were over 3x profit, likely a one-off (e.g. a payment to a former parent at a spin-off)
- Payout ratio
- n/an/m
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $4M0.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $32M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 18, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 18, 2026. From Flowers Foods’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield21.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin49%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity4%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $6.77
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.55−18.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 20$6.20−8.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$6.77you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$12.10+78.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +10.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 12
- DateThu Nov 12, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.15
- Year-ago EPS$0.23
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
FLO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Flowers Foods in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.