QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
Nomad Foods NOMD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 5% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 16%, top 4% of the 1322 we measure
- Dividend yield 5.8%, top 5% of the 2092 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $31.41+154%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.08
52-week range 83% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $12.36Fair value est. $31.41
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NOMD’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NOMD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.08
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.15
How it ranks
Where NOMD stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate154% · price below our base caseTop 3%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield16% · free cash flow vs market capTop 4%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield18% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−2.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 9%of 2,184
- Operating margin11% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 50%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $31.41 · FCF value $22.32
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.98 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from EUR at 1.119), from the 20-F filed Feb 26, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 16.0% (price / FCF 6.2×): $282M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $31.41, 154% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 11.5× vs a 21.1× median for the 62 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.8% ($102M paid over 12 months, 67% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.7× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 29% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew only 1.0% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 4.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.51): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 11.5 · FCF yield 16.0% · Sales −2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.5×Consumer Staples median 21.1×
- Price / FCF
- 6.2×
- FCF yield
- 16.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.52×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −2.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.91
- EPS growth, last FY
- −35.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $153M
- Net income growth
- −40%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 27.1%
- Operating margin
- 10.7%
- Net margin
- 4.5%
- FCF margin
- 8.3%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 1.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $282M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −29%
- Dividend yield
- 5.81%$102M paid
- Payout ratio
- 67%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $219M12.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025. From Nomad Foods’s SEC filings, reported in EUR and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales −3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield16.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin27%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−3%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $12.36
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$9.09−26.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$12.36you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$13.04+5.5%
- Fair value est.base case$31.41+154.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 68 · 5 days +4.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.51
- Year-ago EPS$0.57
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NOMD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Nomad Foods in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.