QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Auto dealers
Group 1 Automotive GPI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 37% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 7% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $489.29+81%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −37%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.31
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 37% below its 52-week high (Dec 11), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +13.4% of market cap since the high, earnings per share +9.2%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +13.4% of market cap since the high, earnings per share +9.2%), others slipped (revenue growth rate −22.9 pts, free cash flow −54.1%, revenue −3.4%). The price is 37% below its 52-week high.
The price is 37% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −22.9 pts, free cash flow −54.1%, revenue −3.4%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$22.5B → $21.8B (−3.4%)changed
- Revenue growth rate+19.4% → −3.4% a year (−22.9 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$29.02 → $31.69 (+9.2%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$493M → $226M (−54.1%)changed
- Operating margin3.5% → 3.6% (+0.1 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−7.2% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+13.4% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −37%, sector median +7% since Dec 11changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −37%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −3% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 11.1× at the high → 14.2× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($426.91, Dec 11) the price assumed about −3%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($224.85, Oct 21) about 3%; today about 1%. The last 3 years delivered 0%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 0%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $426.91Dec 11 | $224.85Oct 21 | $269.79 |
| Implied growth | −3% | +3% | +1% |
| P/E | 14.7× | 9.3× | 8.5× |
| P/FCF | 11.1× | 16.0× | 14.2× |
| EV/Sales | 0.4× | 0.3× | 0.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.6%; bull = 8.5% and 13.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GPI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GPI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.31
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.01
How it ranks
Where GPI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate81% · price below our base caseTop 13%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield7.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 23%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield13% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 3%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−3.4% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 7%of 1,814
- Operating margin3.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 21%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital9.8% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 47%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $489.29 · FCF value $105.39
Assumes 11.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $19.06 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $489.29, 81% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 8.5× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 7.2% in a year: $377M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.1% (price / FCF 14.2×): $226M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 12% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $3.0B, 94% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt rose 76% to $3.7B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales growth slowed to −3% over the last 12 months, from 12% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 54% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 5.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 8.5 · FCF yield 7.1% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.5×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 14.2×
- FCF yield
- 7.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.15×
- Price / book
- 1.05×
- Market cap
- $3.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $21.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −3.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $31.76
- EPS growth, last FY
- −31.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $376M
- Net income growth
- +1%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 15.9%
- Operating margin
- 3.6%
- Net margin
- 1.7%
- FCF margin
- 1.0%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $882M
- Total debt
- $3.9B
- Net cash
- −$3.0B
- Debt / equity
- 1.27×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $226M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −54%
- Dividend yield
- 0.81%$26M paid
- Payout ratio
- 7%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $377M11.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $31M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Group 1 Automotive’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales −7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin0%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−7%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $269.79
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$224.85−16.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$269.79you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$426.91+58.2%
- Fair value est.base case$489.29+81.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +10.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
GPI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Group 1 Automotive in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto dealers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.