QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Auto dealers
Sonic Automotive SAH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 44% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −44%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.71
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 44% below its 52-week high (Jul 29), but the business held up: earnings per share +100.0%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin +0.9 pts.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +100.0%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin +0.9 pts), others slipped (free cash flow −94.5%). The price is 44% below its 52-week high.
The price is 44% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −94.5%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$15.2B → $15.5B (+1.9%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+4.8% → +2.0% a year (−2.8 pts)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$3.20 → $6.41 (+100.0%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$249M → $14M (−94.5%)changed
- Operating margin2.3% → 3.2% (+0.9 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−5.3% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−0.8% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −44%, sector median 0% since Jul 29changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −44%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +2% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 15.4× at the high → 150.6× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($112.66, Jul 29) the price assumed about 2%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($58.28, Feb 17) about −15%; today about 46%. The last 3 years delivered 33%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 33%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $112.66Jul 29 | $58.28Feb 17 | $63.61 |
| Implied growth | +2% | −15% | +46% |
| P/E | 35.2× | 15.7× | 9.9× |
| P/FCF | 15.4× | 5.6× | 150.6× |
| EV/Sales | 0.4× | 0.2× | 0.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for SAH: the model gives 89% below the price; trailing free cash flow is small next to the company's value, so a DCF on it says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SAH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 46% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SAH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.71
- Volatility
- 43% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.11
How it ranks
Where SAH stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield0.7% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 19%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 47%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 19%of 1,814
- Operating margin3.2% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 20%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital18% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 27%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 9.9× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 8.3% in a year: $16M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 5.8×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 18%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 19% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 96% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.7B, 85% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 45% to $3.42 in FY2025.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.7% (price / FCF 151×), so the price leans on future growth.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; net debt 7.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 9.9 · FCF yield 0.7% · ROE 19%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.9×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 150.6×
- FCF yield
- 0.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.8×
- Price / sales
- 0.13×
- Price / book
- 1.93×
- Market cap
- $2.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.23
- EPS growth, last FY
- −44.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $206M
- Net income growth
- +58%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 15.7%
- Operating margin
- 3.2%
- Net margin
- 1.3%
- FCF margin
- 0.1%
- Return on equity
- 19%
- Return on invested capital
- 18%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $11M
- Total debt
- $1.7B
- Net cash
- −$1.7B
- Debt / equity
- 1.65×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $14M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −96%
- Dividend yield
- 2.27%$46M paid
- Payout ratio
- 22%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $16M0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $24M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Sonic Automotive’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.3B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin−2%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA7.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $63.61
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$58.28−8.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$63.61you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$112.66+77.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days +3.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
SAH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Sonic Automotive in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto dealers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.