QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Specialty Foods
J & J Snack Foods JJSF
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 6% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $85.45−4%
- Market Value
- $83.79price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.35
52-week range 68% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $89.18Fair value est. $85.45Market Value $83.79
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 9% below its 52-week high (Jan 20), but the business held up: free cash flow +11.8%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +11.8%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (earnings per share −21.7%, revenue growth rate −5.2 pts, revenue −3.7%). The price is 9% below its 52-week high.
The price is 9% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −21.7%, revenue growth rate −5.2 pts, revenue −3.7%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($98.44, Jan 20) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($69.90, May 12) about 2%; today about 5%. The last 3 years delivered 5%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 5%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $98.44Jan 20 | $69.90May 12 | $89.18 |
| Implied growth | +10% | +2% | +5% |
| P/E | 29.3× | 22.7× | 33.9× |
| P/FCF | 23.4× | 14.7× | 18.2× |
| EV/Sales | 1.1× | 0.8× | 1.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.7%; bull = 8.5% and 6.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, JJSF’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 5%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much JJSF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.35
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.13
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.21
How it ranks
Where JJSF stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate4% · price above our base caseTop 49%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield5.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 36%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield8.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 11%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−4.7% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 6%of 2,184
- Operating margin3.9% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 26%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital5.6% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 32%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $85.45 · MV $83.79 · FCF value $78.69
Assumes 4.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.91 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net cash $35M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 4.0% in a year: $78M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.5% (price / FCF 18.2×): $92M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.6% ($61M paid over 12 months).
Balance sheetNet cash of $35M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 27, 2026).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $61M paid vs $49M of net income.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 24% to $3.36 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 6%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 6.4% above its Market Value of $83.79, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 33.9 · FCF yield 5.5% · ROE 5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 33.9×Consumer Staples median 21.1×
- Price / FCF
- 18.2×
- FCF yield
- 5.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.1×
- Price / sales
- 1.10×
- Price / book
- 1.87×
- Market cap
- $1.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −4.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.58
- EPS growth, last FY
- −24.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $49M
- Net income growth
- −41%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 31.3%
- Operating margin
- 3.9%
- Net margin
- 3.2%
- FCF margin
- 6.0%
- Return on equity
- 5%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $63M
- Total debt
- $28M
- Net cash
- $35M
- Debt / equity
- 0.03×
- Interest coverage
- 27.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $92M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 3.65%$61M paid
- Payout ratio
- 124%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $78M4.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $6M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From J & J Snack Foods’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales −6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−6%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $89.18
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$69.90−21.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$83.79−6.0%
- Fair value est.base case$85.45−4.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$89.18you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$98.44+10.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 73 · 5 days +7.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.21
- Year-ago EPS$1.58
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
JJSF is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on J & J Snack Foods in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Foods
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.