QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Sasol SSL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 12% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Net cash = 14% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $19.25+22%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.73
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SSL’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SSL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 4.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.73
- Volatility
- 55% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.15
How it ranks
Where SSL stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate22% · price below our base caseTop 32%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield7.7% · free cash flow vs market capTop 19%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 21%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−9.5% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 3%of 1,814
- Operating margin7.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 35%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital9.5% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 46%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $19.25 · FCF value $216.23
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -3.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.21 a share (fiscal year to Jun 30, 2025, converted from ZAR at 0.06016), from the 20-F filed Aug 29, 2025. Net debt $4.8B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet cash of $1.5B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2025).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.7% (price / FCF 13.0×): $780M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $1.0B at FY2025, 61% less than at FY2023.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 4.4×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $19.25, 22% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.0× over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales fell 9% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 5% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales shrank 3% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
All fundamentals
P/E 24.9 · FCF yield 7.7% · ROE 5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.9×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- 13.0×
- FCF yield
- 7.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 4.4×
- Price / sales
- 0.68×
- Price / book
- 1.11×
- Market cap
- $10.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −9.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.54
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $407M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 7.6%
- Net margin
- 2.7%
- FCF margin
- 5.2%
- Return on equity
- 5%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.5B
- Total debt
- $1.0B
- Net cash
- $1.5B
- Debt / equity
- 0.11×
- Interest coverage
- 2.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $780M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0.14%$14M paid
- Payout ratio
- 3%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2025; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2025. From Sasol’s SEC filings, reported in ZAR and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $5.6B · Sales +18%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin44%
- Operating margin23%
- Return on invested capital67%
- Return on equity9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+18%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $15.81
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.00−62.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$15.81you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.03+14.0%
- Fair value est.base case$19.25+21.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −9.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
SSL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Sasol in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.